🔗 Share this article

A mere 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery scolded him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a sign or the reason for the side's broader struggles.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

This weekend, though, the touchline reaction was decidedly more positive. As the England international curled home his second strike to restore his side's advantage, Emery tore off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow only three points off the leaders Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Challengers?

That’s a particularly tough query to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, even as the positive results have stacked up.

As per the data, on just two occasions has the side had an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a club who have just won a ten-match winning streak, they seem weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the margins are going in their favour.

The Reliant Strategy

Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping Rogers to rescue them with some precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened versus United.

His opener came from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second was essentially a somewhat messier replica of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Can It Last?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United managed more shots and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival Villa will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, will not continue to drilling the football into the top corner forever.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is another reality where, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.

• The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
• The winger could transform into the player he was during his peak.
• The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky defence.

Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on a single individual.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would be third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, nobody thought the young forward now would be leading a title charge while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.

This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it appears so improbable. When the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.